What does the YouGov poll reveal about Friedrich Merz’s future?
According to the YouGov survey conducted on a representative sample of 1,611 adults, 48 percent of respondents said Friedrich Merz would not be chancellor at the beginning of 2027. Thirty-one percent said he would still hold the office, and 21 percent declined to answer or said they did not know. The poll was released on 18 September 2026.
Why are CDU election results raising questions about Merz?
The CDU suffered a sharp defeat in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks earlier, securing only 17 percent of the vote while the AfD reached 44 percent. The result marked the party’s worst performance in the state since German reunification. Similar low support appears in Mecklenburg-Pomerania, where recent surveys place the CDU at 7 percent, just above the 5 percent threshold required for seats in the state parliament. If confirmed at 7 percent, this would represent the CDU’s worst result in any of Germany’s 16 federal states since the Second World War.
Impact of AfD gains on CDU strategy
The AfD’s advance in eastern states has intensified internal discussion within the CDU about leadership direction. Party officials have noted that repeated weak results could affect coalition stability at the federal level.
How has Merz responded to speculation about his position?
Merz has stated that stepping down is not an option for him. He continues to emphasise his commitment to completing the current term despite declining personal approval ratings recorded in recent months. The chancellor’s popularity has collapsed in the last months, increasing pressure from within his own party and from opposition voices.
What are the next electoral tests for the CDU?
State elections scheduled in the coming weeks in additional eastern states will provide further data on voter sentiment. Analysts expect the outcomes to influence discussions at the federal level about the government’s stability. Merz faces the risk of further humiliating defeats in at least one eastern state election.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of Germans expect Merz to leave office before 2027?
Forty-eight percent of respondents in the YouGov poll said Merz would no longer be chancellor by early 2027.
How large was the YouGov survey sample?
The survey interviewed 1,611 adults selected to represent the German population.
Which party performed strongly in recent eastern state elections?
The AfD recorded 44 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt , well ahead of the CDU’s 17 percent.
What is the CDU’s current polling level in Mecklenburg-Pomerania?
Recent surveys show the CDU at 7 percent in that state, close to the 5 percent electoral threshold.
Has Merz indicated he will step down?
Merz has publicly stated that leaving office is not an option he is considering.
